Industrial Production Increased in August

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in August after declining 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing production increased 0.5 percent, more than reversing its decrease in July. Factory output has increased 0.2 percent per month over the past four months after having decreased 0.5 percent per month during the […]

Real Estate

Home Prices Increase in Every Price Range

CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) Report revealed, “National home prices increased 3.6% year over year in July 2019 and are forecast to increase 5.4% from July 2019 to July 2020.” They also analyzed four individual home-price tiers, showing the increase in each. Here’s the breakdown: To clarify the methodology, CoreLogic explains, “The four price tiers […]


The attractions–and the limits–of fiscal policy

Fiscal policy can do more heavy lifting when monetary policy alone is no longer enough. Even without any coordination, governments have room to borrow and invest more – especially in a low interest rate environment – to effectively stir activity. We have argued that there has not been enough government spending globally on infrastructure, education, […]


Update: Predicting the Next Recession

CR September 2019 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post “Predicting the Next Recession“. I repeated the post in January 2015 (and in the summer of 2015, in January 2016, in August 2016, in April 2017, in April 2018, and in October 2018) because of all the recession calls. In late 2015, the recession callers were out […]


Hotels: Some Analyis of Short Term Rentals; Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

First, some analysis from HotelNewsNow on the impact of short term rentals on hotels: The effects of maturing short-term rentals on US hotels From STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 September The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 September 2019, […]


Building the cities of the future

Picture this: you wake up in the morning to a grueling iPhone alarm, roll out of bed, and put together breakfast. As you walk to the gym, you dodge scaffolding and turn up your music to wash out the sounds of construction. After the workout, you head to the nearest WeWork to start your job. […]


NY Fed: Manufacturing “Business activity was little changed in New York State”

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged down three points to 2.0. New orders were marginally higher than last month, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times […]


Is value investing dead?

As far back as 1934, David Dodd and Ben Graham wrote about value investing in their seminal text, Security Analysis. The two Columbia Business School professors put forth the idea that stocks with low prices relative to their intrinsic value could outperform the market over time. Following their work, countless academics and practitioners confirmed their […]


FOMC Preview

The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting. A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October.  The hints could be […]


Schedule for Week of September 15, 2019

The key economic reports this week are August Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week. The FOMC is expected to cut the Fed Funds rate 25bps on Wednesday, and the Fed’s Q2 Flow of Funds report will […]


“Mortgage Rates’ Week Goes From Bad to Worse”

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates’ Week Goes From Bad to Worse Mortgage rates were already having their worst week since 2016 as of yesterday afternoon. Rather than help to heal some of the damage, today’s bond market momentum only made things worse. Whether we’re looking at 10yr Treasury yields a broad indicator of […]


Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch: 3Q and 2Q GDP tracking remain at 2.0% qoq saar. [Sept 13 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). [Sept 13 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at […]


SteelPath September MLP update and news

MLP market overview Midstream MLPs, as measured by the Alerian MLP Index (AMZ), ended August down 6.7% on a price basis and down 5.5% once distributions were considered. The AMZ results underperformed the S&P 500 Index’s 1.6% total return loss for the month. The best performing midstream subsector for August was the Petroleum Pipeline group, […]