Stock

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.8% year-over-year in December

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December (“December” is a 3 month average of October, November and December prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data […]

Stock

House Prices and Inventory

Watching existing home “for sale” inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here. And in 2015, it appeared […]

Stock

Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design

Along with the monthly housing starts for January last week, the Census Bureau released Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design through Q4 2019. This graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for rent, and condos built […]

Stock

Schedule for Week of February 23, 2020

The key reports this week are January New Home sales and the second estimate of Q4 GDP. Other key reports include Case-Shiller house prices and Personal Income and Outlays for January. For manufacturing, the February Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, Feb 24th —–8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National […]

Stock

Comments on January Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in January A few key points: 1) Existing home sales were up 9.6% year-over-year (YoY) in January. 2) Inventory is very low, and was down 10.7% year-over-year (YoY) in January.   Inventory always decreases sharply in December as people take their homes off the market for the […]

Stock

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.6%

From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 0.7% qoq saar for 1Q GDP and 2.0% for 4Q. [Feb 21 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: we raised our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.5%. [Feb 19 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2020:Q1. […]

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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in January

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Drop 1.3% in January Existing-home sales declined in January, continuing a fluctuating pattern of monthly increases and declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Significant declines in the West region dragged down nationwide numbers, with the other three major U.S. regions reporting marginal – or no – changes last […]

Investing

The power of portfolio flexibility

Many investment managers apply strict portfolio constraints as part of their risk management process. These often include limits in sector over-/under-weightings, geographic concentrations, minimum levels of portfolio holdings and/or market capitalization requirements. The challenge around these types of curbs is that while they are designed to reduce potential return variance, typically in relation to a […]

Stock

3 reasons to stick with tech stocks

Technology shares are once again leaving everything else in the dust. Year-to-date, the MSCI Information Technology sector, led by U.S. tech, is beating the broader market by over 5% and is ahead of laggards, notably energy, by nearly 20% (see Chart 1). Given the magnitude of the gains, many are understandably wondering if it’s time […]

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Coronavirus testing our global outlook

We still expect the global growth to edge higher this year, even as the coronavirus outbreak has introduced uncertainties, as detailed in the February update of our Global Outlook. V-shaped recoveries in economic activities have often followed past epidemics – and we expect a repeat of this pattern. Yet the depth and width of the […]

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Black Knight’s First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January, Lowest Level on Record

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level on Record; January Sees Strongest Decline in More Than a Year • Mortgage delinquencies fell by more than 5% in January, hitting their lowest level on record dating back to 2000 • January’s 14% year-over-year decline is the strongest in more than […]

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Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity Increased in February

From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest a Pickup in Growth in February Manufacturing firms reported an improvement in regional manufacturing activity, according to results from the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month, suggesting more widespread growth. The firms reported expansion […]