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Top Twenty Five GDP Quarters since 2000

A year ago I posted a list of the top twenty five GDP quarters since 2000.   Here is an update. The advance estimate of Q2 GDP data will be released this Friday, and the consensus estimate is for real GDP to increase 1.9% in Q2 2019 (Annualized). Last year, in Q2 2018, GDP increased […]

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 13 July The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 7-13 July 2019, according to data from STR. n comparison with the week of 8-14 July 2018, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -2.4% to […]

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 21, 2019 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI […]

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Schedule for Week of July 21, 2019

The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q2 GDP, and June New and Existing Home Sales. For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, July 22nd —–8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data. […]

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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.25 million in June, down 1.7% from May’s […]

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Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1.4% to 2.3%

From Merrill Lynch: Strong retail sales in June boosted our 2Q GDP tracking by 0.6pp to 2.3% qoq saar. [July 19 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.4% (qoq ar). [July 17 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at […]

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The case for European equities

With the S&P 500 up nearly 20% year-to-date, U.S. investors can be forgiven for maintaining a home country bias. Consistent with the post-crisis norm, 2019 is shaping up to be another year when U.S. equities beat the rest of the world. That said the case for international diversification remains sound, in part because other markets […]

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NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index Increased in July

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) released their July report: July NMHC Quarterly Survey Finds Strong Ongoing Demand The enduring strength of the apartment market was the main takeaway of the National Multifamily Housing Council’s Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for July 2019, as the Market Tightness (60), Equity Financing (56), and Debt Financing […]

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Philly Fed Mfg “Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest Continued Growth in July”

From the Philly Fed: July 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing conditions in the region showed improvement this month, according to firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive and increased from their June readings. Most of the survey’s future activity […]

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The importance of income today (and our bond market views)

Central banks are shifting toward monetary easing, as they seek to cushion a global growth slowdown sparked by rising trade tensions. This policy pivot should extend the long expansion, we believe, creating a supportive backdrop for income-generating assets. We see income, or carry, as the key driver of bond market returns in today’s low-for-long world, […]

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In search of income in emerging market debt

Central banks are shifting toward monetary easing, as they aim to cushion a global slowdown sparked by trade tensions. This policy pivot should help stretch the cycle and has depressed long-term yields, creating a supportive backdrop for income-generating assets. One such asset we favor: local-currency emerging market (EM) debt. The decisively dovish turn in global […]

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What big data is saying about the Fed

It’s summertime and the central banks are … well, easy. The Fed’s pivot to a more dovish monetary policy stance since May has been followed by a generalized move among other central banks in the same direction. Rhetoric from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been closely watched and markets have largely cheered the idea of […]

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A Q3 investor watch list

Proceed with caution, but by all means … proceed. This was the overarching message in our third quarter equity market outlook. We believe U.S. stocks can grind higher in the new quarter, underpinned by strong fundamentals and an economy that is still growing ― albeit nearing the final legs of its multi-year expansion. The rebound […]