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Sacramento Housing in November: Sales Down 4.8% YoY, Active Inventory down 33.6% YoY

From SacRealtor.org: Sales, inventory drop for November November closed with a 19.4% decrease in sales volume, dropping from 1,540 in October to 1,242 units this month. Compared to one year ago (1,304), the current figure is down 4.8%.…The Active Listing Inventory decreased from 2,301 to 1,803 units. The Months of Inventory remained at 1.5 Months. This figure represents the […]

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Changes to our investing views for 2020

Two dueling forces have shaped asset performance in 2019: the protectionist push and a dovish pivot in monetary policy. The latter won out for risk assets, fueling multiple expansion in equities and helping send bond yields to historic lows. What do we expect in 2020? The three new themes we introduce in our 2020 Global […]

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NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 76 in December, Highest since 1999

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 76, up from 71 in November. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From NAHB: Builder Confidence Ends Year Strong on Solid Economic Fundamentals Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes […]

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Monday: Home Builder Survey, NY Fed Mfg

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 15, 2019 • Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q3 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, up from 2.9. • At 10:00 AM, The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a […]

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Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Positive in Q3

Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. The following data is calculated from the Fed’s Flow of Funds data (released last week) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, […]

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Schedule for Week of December 15, 2019

The key economic reports this week are November Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, Dec 16th —–8:30 AM: The New York […]

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch The retail sales data nudged 3Q and 4Q GDP tracking a tenth lower to 2.1% and 1.5% qoq saar. [Dec 13 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.7% for 2019:Q4 and 0.8% for 2020:Q1. [Dec 13 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: […]

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Retail Sales increased 0.2% in November

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.3 percent from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.3 percent from November 2018. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, […]

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Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in November, Core PCE below 2%

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.1% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are […]

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How to avoid “dollar cost ravaging” in retirement

Patrick: Mark, some 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day, yet the last baby boomer won’t turn 65 for another decade. What are the key challenges as they enter retirement and withdrawal mode? Mark: Retirement investors face an unprecedented future where poor financial planning at the start of retirement can have catastrophic consequences later on. Unrealistic […]