Category Added in a WPeMatico Campaign

Stock

Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE

Note: Back in early 2016, I noted that energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE had hit an all time low. Here is an update through the December 2019 PCE report released last week. Below is a graph of expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures through December […]

Stock

Why bonds are still a good hedge

While growing concerns related to the coronavirus, and its potential impact on global growth, resulted in a nominally negative return for January, U.S. equities remain more than 13% above the Q4 low. The coronavirus still an unknown and unquantifiable risk, coupled with lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mounting concerns over the U.S. […]

Stock

Wednesday: Fed Chair Powell Testimony

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

Stock

MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in Fourth Quarter of 2019”

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in Fourth Quarter of 2019 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.77 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The […]

Stock

The economics of social unrest

Protest movements—most prominently in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia—have become a feature of the geopolitical landscape. Each protest is distinct, with different proximal causes, but there appear to be underlying patterns. Concentrated wealth and income inequality are a key theme. Median incomes have stagnated around the world in recent decades, while the share […]

Stock

NY Fed Q4 Report: “Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion as Mortgage Originations Reach Highest Volume since 2005”

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Tops $14 Trillion as Mortgage Originations Reach Highest Volume since 2005 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increased by $193 billion (1.4%) to $14.15 trillion in the fourth […]

Stock

Small Business Optimism Increased in January

Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the “Single Most Important Problem”. From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): January 2020 Report The small business Optimism Index started the New Year … rising 1.6 points to 104.3 in the month of January…New job creation […]

Stock

Payroll Employment and Seasonal Factors

This might be a good time to review the seasonal pattern for employment. Even in the best of years there are a significant number of jobs lost in the months of January and July. In 1994, when the economy added almost 3.9 million jobs, there were 2.25 million lost in January 1994 (not seasonally adjusted, […]

Stock

Why we are still neutral on U.S. stocks

The coronavirus outbreak in late January swiftly shifted the direction in global markets – from an ebullient risk assets rally to an anxious selloff. U.S. stocks had performed in line with global peers, before switching gear to outperform them. We see their performance pattern before late January to reassert itself over the next six to […]

Stock

Seattle Real Estate in January: Sales up 17.2% YoY, Inventory down 32.9% YoY

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Home buyers in Western Washington “hit the ground running” in January “All indicators point to a vigorous spring market,” suggested broker Dean Rebhuhn when reviewing just-released statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report covering 23 counties shows pending sales outgained new listings, record-low inventory that’s down 33% from […]

Stock

Weather Adjusted Employment Gains in January

The weather boosted employment gains in January. The question is: how much? The BLS reported 226 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 347 thousand. The BLS also reported 744 thousand people were usually […]

Stock

Schedule for Week of February 9, 2020

The key reports this week are January CPI and retail sales. For manufacturing, the January Industrial Production report will be released. Fed Chair Powell testifies to Congress this week. —– Monday, Feb 10th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, Feb 11th —–6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.