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CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.5% Year-over-year in October

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports October Home Prices Increased by 3.5% Year Over Year Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over […]

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Construction Spending Decreased in October

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in October: Construction spending during October 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,291.1 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised September estimate of $1,301.8 billion. The October figure is 1.1 percent above the October 2018 estimate of $1,277.4 billion. During the first […]

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U.S. Consumers: Calm surface, revolution below

Despite suffering episodic bouts of volatility centered on politics and policy, two pillars continue to support the economy and markets: central banks and the U.S. consumer. With regards to the latter, although U.S. households never quite regained the housing-induced elation of the aught years, consumption continues to support not just the U.S. economy, but the […]

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STR: Hotel RevPAR “Upcycle Over”

From Jan Freitag at HotelNewsNow: Consecutive RevPAR dips make it official: Upcycle over Let’s look at what we know: RevPAR has now declined two months in a row—three months in the last year, and four months in the prior 13 months. Because everyone likes a record, we keep counting RevPAR growth months and are now […]

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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.8% to 2.0%

From Goldman Sachs: [W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). (qoq ar). [Nov 27 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.8% for 2019:Q4. [Nov 29 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real […]

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Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful

With a Hat Tip to Neil Irwin (he started doing this several years ago) … here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving … 1) Low unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 3.8% in October 2018 (a year ago), and is down from […]

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Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Similar YoY Price Gains in October compared to September

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: September Case-Shiller Results and October Forecast: Steady as She Goes The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose […]

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Personal Income increased Slightly in October, Spending increased 0.3%, Core PCE increase 0.1%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income increased $3.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $12.6 billion (-0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.7 billion (0.3 percent). Real DPI decreased […]

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NAR: “Pending Home Sales Decline 1.7% in October”

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Decline 1.7% in October Pending home sales retreated in October, taking a slight step back after two prior months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast experienced a minor uptick last month, but the other three major U.S. regions reported declines in month-over-month contract activity. […]

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Q3 GDP Revised Up to 2.1% Annual Rate

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2019 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP […]

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Rethinking the role of government bonds

Monetary policy may have reached its limit in stoking growth – and interest rates in some developed markets are nearing the lowest levels that central banks can feasibly set. This forces a rethink of the strategic role of government bonds in portfolios. The duration of bond indexes has been rising as yields decline, making them […]

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Wednesday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Personal Income & Outlays, Pending Home Sales, Beige Book

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 219,000 initial claims, down from 227,000 last week. • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3nd quarter 2018 […]