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Schedule for Week of October 13, 2019

The key economic reports this week are September Housing Starts and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, Oct 14th —–Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open. No […]

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Sacramento Housing in September: Sales Up 5.7% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 24% YoY

From SacRealtor.org: Sales volume declines for September, median sale price flat September closed with 1,393 sales, an 11.1% decrease from August’s 1,567 sales. Compared to September 2018 (1,318), the current figure is up 5.7%. …The Active Listing Inventory decreased slightly from 2,460 to 2,457 units. The Months of Inventory increased from 1.6 to 1.8 Months. […]

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Q3 GDP Forecast: Just Under 2%

From Merrill Lynch: Misses in construction spending and trade coupled with negative revisions to capex data sliced 0.3pp from 3Q GDP tracking this week, leaving us at 1.6% qoq saar. [Oct 11 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2019:Q3 and 1.3% for 2019:Q4. […]

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Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in September, Core PCE below 2%

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (3.0% annualized rate) in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI […]

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Cost of Living Adjustment increases 1.6% in 2020, Contribution Base increased to $137,700

With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2020. From Social Security: Social Security Announces 1.6 Percent Benefit Increase for 2020 Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for nearly 69 million Americans will increase 1.6 percent in 2020, […]

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FOMC Minutes: “More concerned about risks associated with trade tensions and adverse geopolitical developments”

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 17-18, 2019. A few excerpts: Participants generally viewed the baseline economic outlook as positive and indicated that their views of the most likely outcomes for economic activity and inflation had changed little since the July meeting. However, for most participants, that economic outlook was […]

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A preview of third-quarter earnings season

Equities have stumbled this month, as weak economic data has revived recession fears. This comes after central banks’ dovish pivot fueled significant multiple expansion. Where to now? We see limited additional monetary easing ahead. This means earnings will be key for further U.S. equity gains. Third-quarter earnings season may offer some limited support as the […]

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Wednesday: Job Openings, FOMC Minutes

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS. • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of September 17-18, 2019• At 6:00 AM, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for […]

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Seattle Real Estate in September: Sales up 12.3% YoY, Inventory down Slightly YoY

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Northwest MLS Brokers Say Transition to Fall Creating Opportunities for Buyers Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers reported year-over-year gains in pending sales, closed sales and prices, but its report summarizing September activity also showed an 18% drop in inventory compared to a year ago. At the end of September, […]

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U.S. consumers: still an engine of growth

August reinforced the perennial fear of this recovery: insufficient growth. While the economic data has started to stabilize, the global economy, particularly the manufacturing sector, remains fragile. However, for the umpteenth time this recovery, the U.S. household sector appears to be keeping the global economy out of the abyss.  The good news: This is likely […]