Category Added in a WPeMatico Campaign

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Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in December, Core PCE below 2%

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.8% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are […]

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Tuesday: CPI

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Face More Volatility Later This Week Mortgage rates didn’t do much today, and that’s good enough news considering the average lender is closer to the lower end of the rate range since early October. The only counterpoint would be that there isn’t much distance between the […]

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Employment: December Diffusion Indexes

I haven’t posted this in a few months. The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 57.0 in December, down from 65.7 in November. For manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 44.7, down from 65.8 in November. Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further […]

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The Record Job Streak: A few Comments

A few comments on the current headline jobs streak.  Also, the job streak if we adjust by temporary decennial Census hiring, and the possible impact of the annual revision (to be released with the January employment report). The employment report has shown positive job growth for a record 111 months. Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks […]

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Schedule for Week of January 12, 2020

The key reports this week are December housing starts, CPI and retail sales. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, Jan 13th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, Jan 14th —–6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. 8:30 […]

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Comments on December Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 145 thousand for December was below consensus expectations of 160 thousand, and the previous two months were revised down 14 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%. Earlier: December Employment Report: 145,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate In December, the year-over-year employment change was 2.108 million jobs including […]

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Goldman: December Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 185k in December … We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.5% … we estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month, lowering the year-over-year rate to 3.0%emphasis added

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Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote: As the housing bubble unwinds, housing related employment will fall; and fall dramatically in areas like the Inland Empire. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local […]

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Why we like health care stocks in 2020

In a year-end poll of our Fundamental Active Equity investors, two themes stood out: The U.S. election is seen as a key market driver, and health care is among our favored sectors. The two juxtaposed may surprise some readers. Health care reform and drug pricing are hot-button political topics. You might assume it’s the year […]

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December Employment Preview

Special Note: The 2020 Decennial Census will start increasing hiring in early 2020. In reporting the employment report, the headline number should be reduced (or increased) by the change in Census temporary employment to show the underlying trend. On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus […]

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Four Bank Failures in 2019

There were four bank failures in 2019. This was up from zero in 2018. The median number of failures since the FDIC was established in 1933 was 7 – so 4 failures in 2019 was well below the median. The great recession / housing bust / financial crisis related failures have been behind us for […]

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Houston Real Estate in December: Sales up 14.7% YoY, Inventory Up 3.6%, Record Sales Year

From the HAR: The Houston Housing Market Charges Across the Finish Line for a Record 2019 Low mortgage interest rates, healthy employment growth and a stable supply of homes created fertile ground for the Houston real estate market, which blossomed to record levels in 2019. Single-family home sales for the full year surpassed 2018’s record […]

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Seattle Real Estate in December: Sales up 18.7% YoY, Inventory down 24.6% YoY

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Eager home buyers were plentiful in December but their choices were meager “The buyers are out there and are showing up at open houses and making multiple offers on new listings,” was how one industry leader summarized December’s housing activity involving members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.…Newly-released figures […]