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Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.1% to 2.3%

From Merrill Lynch 4Q tracking rose to 2.0% qoq saar, boosted by trade and inventories data. [Jan 3 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.1% for 2019:Q4 and 1.0% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 3 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for […]

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Construction Spending Increased in November

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in November: Construction spending during November 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,324.1 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,316.8 billion. The November figure is 4.1 percent above the November 2018 estimate of $1,271.4 billion. During the first […]

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ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 47.2 in December, Fifth Consecutive Month of Contraction

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction in December. The PMI was at 47.2% in December, down from 48.1% in November. The employment index was at 45.1%, down from 46.6% last month, and the new orders index was at 46.8%, down from 47.2%. From the Institute for Supply Management: December 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® […]

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 222,000

The DOL reported: In the week ending December 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 222,000 to 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous […]

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Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019

CR Note: These lower population estimates are important for projections of economic growth and housing. I mentioned this slowdown in growth earlier this month in Is the Future still Bright? From housing economist Tom Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019 Yesterday the Census Bureau released its “Vintage 2019” estimates of the US resident […]

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.3% year-over-year in October

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October (“October” is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data […]

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October 2019. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. • Also at 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 3.2% year-over-year increase in the National index for October.

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Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation rate start declining in 2020, or will it move more sideways (or slightly up) in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 4) Participation Rate: In November 2020, the overall participation rate was at 63.2%, up slightly year-over-year from 62.9% in November 2019.   The BLS is projecting the overall participation rate will […]

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Chicago PMI “Rose to 48.9 in December”

Earlier from the Chicago PMI: Chicago Business Barometer™ – Rose to 48.9 in December The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 2.6 points in December, hitting a four-month high of 48.9. Business sentiment dropped by 1.2 points to 46.2 in Q4, marking the lowest quarterly reading since Q2 2009. The index was below the […]

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Dallas Fed: “Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly”

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to 3.6 after dipping into negative territory last month. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also […]

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NAR: “Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November”

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November Pending home sales increased in November, rebounding from the prior month’s decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The West region reported the highest growth last month, while the other three major U.S. regions saw only marginal variances in month-over-month contract activity. Pending home […]

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Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 29, 2019 Monday:• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. • At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in the index. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last […]