Category Added in a WPeMatico Campaign

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Schedule for Week of August 18, 2019

The key reports this week are July New and Existing Home Sales. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Also this week, the BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision, and the CBO will release updated budget and economic projections —– Monday, Aug 19th —–No major economic releases scheduled. […]

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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.40 million in July, up 2.5% from June’s […]

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

From Merrill Lynch: The data boosted our 3Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to 2.1% qoq saar. 2Q was unchanged at 1.8%. [Aug 15 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.1% (qoq ar). [Aug 16 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The […]

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Comments on July Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decline to 1.191 Million Annual Rate in July Total housing starts in July were below expectations, and starts for May and June were revised down.  The weakness was in the volatile multi-family sector. The housing starts report showed starts were down 4.0% in July compared to June, and starts were up 0.6% […]

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Friday: Housing Starts

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July. The consensus is for 1.260 million SAAR, up from 1.253 million SAAR in June. • At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August). • At 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2019

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Earlier: NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys

Earlier from the Philly Fed: August 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The general activity, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month, […]

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Industrial Production Decreased in July

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production declined 0.2 percent in July. Manufacturing output decreased 0.4 percent last month and has fallen more than 1-1/2 percent since December 2018. In July, mining output fell 1.8 percent, as Hurricane Barry caused a sharp but temporary decline in oil extraction in the Gulf of […]

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Retail Sales increased 0.7% in July

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7 percent from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.4 percent from July 2018. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, […]

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Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Industrial Production, NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys, Homebuilder Confidence

Note: On October 23rd, I will be one of three speakers at the “2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business” in Newport Beach, California, sponsored by the Newport Beach Chamber of Commerce. UCI Finance Professor Christopher Schwarz and I will be discussing the 2020 economic outlook, and Dr. Richard Afable will […]

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Don’t Freak Out about the Yield Curve

There are reasons to be concerned. The global economy is slowing. The US economy has slowed. Current policy (especially on trade) is a drag on growth. But I wouldn’t freak out about the yield curve. In mid-1998 the spread between the 10 year and the 2 year went slightly negative, and a recession didn’t start […]

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Houston Real Estate in July: All Time Record One-Month Sales, Sales up 11% YoY, Inventory Up 10%

From the HAR: The Houston Real Estate Market Heats Up in July Consumers kept Realtors across greater Houston busy in July, accounting for the greatest one-month volume of single-family home sales of all time. According to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR), July single-family home sales totaled 8,953. That is […]

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased Sharply in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 21.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 9, 2019. … The Refinance Index increased 37 percent from the previous week to its highest level […]