Category Added in a WPeMatico Campaign

Stock

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.40 million in December, up 0.9% from November’s preliminary pace and up 8.0% from last December’s […]

Stock

CAR on California December Housing: Sales up 7.4% YoY, Inventory down 26.5%, Lowest Inventory in “nearly seven years”

The CAR reported: Low interest rates boost housing market in second half of year as home prices post strong gains in December, C.A.R. reports Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 398,880 units in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 […]

Stock

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch On balance retail sales cut our 4Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 2.0% qoq saar. [Jan 17 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.2% for 2019:Q4 and 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 17 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model […]

Stock

Comments on December Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.608 Million Annual Rate in December Total housing starts in December were well above expectations and revisions to prior months were positive. The housing starts report showed starts were up 16.9% in December compared to November, and starts were up 40.8% year-over-year compared to December 2018. These were blow out […]

Stock

Industrial Production Decreased in December

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in December, as a decrease of 5.6 percent for utilities outweighed increases of 0.2 percent for manufacturing and 1.3 percent for mining. The drop for utilities resulted from a large decrease in demand for heating, as unseasonably warm weather in December followed […]

Stock

Housing Starts increased to 1.608 Million Annual Rate in December

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,608,000. This is 16.9 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,375,000 and is 40.8 percent above the December 2018 rate of 1,142,000. Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of […]

Stock

3 tips for investing in the low-carbon transition

We’ve read the headlines. Extreme weather events from wildfire to floods are forcing governments and companies around the world to consider climate-related risks as they plan for the future. Reducing greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions has been central to these plans and is already under way. According to the Global Carbon Project, the U.S. has seen […]

Stock

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreases Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 11 January The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 5-11 January 2020, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 6-12 January 2019, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -3.1% to […]

Stock

NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 75 in January

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 75, down from 76 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From NAHB: Builder Confidence Begins Year Strong as Single-Family Growth Continues Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes […]

Stock

Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity Increased in January

From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest Growth in January Manufacturing activity in the region increased this month, according to results from the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current activity, new orders, shipments, and employment were all positive and increased from their readings in December. The survey’s future activity indexes […]

Stock

Retail Sales increased 0.3% in December

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.3 percent from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.8 percent from December 2018. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, […]

Stock

What to watch in geopolitics in 2020

The U.S. killing of a top Iranian military leader and the subsequent retaliation by Iran in recent weeks marked an escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. This reminds us of still heightened geopolitical risks across many dimensions, even as we see a relatively benign backdrop for risk assets in 2020. The U.S.-China trade conflict – the dominant […]

Stock

Fed’s Beige Book: Economic Actvity Expanded “Modestly”, Labor Market “Tight”

Fed’s Beige Book “This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York based on information collected on or before January 6, 2020.” Economic activity generally continued to expand modestly in the final six weeks of 2019. The Dallas and Richmond Districts noted above-average growth, while Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City reported […]

Stock

Small Business Optimism Index “Dips” in December

CR Note: This was released yesterday. Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the “Single Most Important Problem”. From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): December 2019 Report: Small Business Optimism Dips in December Small business optimism ended the year historically strong, with a […]

Stock

NY Fed: Manufacturing “Business activity grew to a small degree in New York State”

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity grew to a small degree in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8. …The index for number of employees held steady at 9.0, indicating that employment […]