Schedule for Week of December 8, 2019

The key economic reports this week are November CPI and Retail Sales. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected. —– Monday, Dec 9th —–No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, Dec 10th —–6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November. —– Wednesday, Dec 11th —–7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage […]


AAR: November Rail Carloads down 7.5% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.4% YoY

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail traffic continues to struggle because U.S. manufacturing is soft, trade disputes and the uncertainty they entail are ongoing, and economic growth abroad isn’t what it could be.…In November 2019, total U.S. rail carloads were down 7.5% and total […]


Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.6% to 2.0%

From Goldman Sachs: [W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar) [Dec 5 estimate]emphasis added From Merrill Lynch This week, our … 4Q GDP tracking estimate edged down by 0.1pp to 1.6% on weaker than expected residential spend in Oct. [Dec 6 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report […]


Comments on November Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 266 thousand for November was above consensus expectations of 180 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 41 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%. Earlier: November Employment Report: 266,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate In November, the year-over-year employment change was 2.204 million jobs including Census […]


Friday: Employment Report

My November Employment Preview. Goldman’s November Payrolls preview. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 180,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December). • At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit from […]


Goldman: November Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 180k in November … We expect a 46k boost from the end of the General Motors strike … We also believe some of the 68k ADP miss this month reflected legitimate weakness in the ADP jobs panel. […]


November Employment Preview

Special Notes on GM Strike and the Decennial Census: The GM strike ended in October, and 46,000 workers were on strike during the BLS reference week in October. These workers returned to their jobs in November, and this should boost employment gains for November. Decennial Census: In August and September, the Census Bureau increased the […]


Trade Deficit decreased to $47.2 Billion in October

From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.2 billion in October, down $3.9 billion from $51.1 billion in September, revised. October exports were $207.1 billion, $0.4 billion less than September exports. October imports were $254.3 billion, […]


Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, up from 213,000 last week. • At 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $49.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.5 […]


Dead Broke in a Beamer

Christmas came early for my kids this year … Daddy finally got a job. (Well, to be accurate, 220 hours of community service as part of my Financial Counselling qualification.) On my first day, the three of them surprised me by getting up really early and having a celebratory breakfast with me (possibly with the […]