The FT says its time for the Bank of England to start direct funding of the government: modern monetary theory has won the day

The FT is continuing to face reality as it considers what to do in the face of the coronavirus crisis. It has an editorial today that concludes: The scale of today’s downturn means even the most direct monetary financing, such as “helicopter money”, or handing cash to the public, should remain an option. That’s pretty […]


Building timeless portfolios

Severe volatility tests even the most disciplined investors. The longest-ever bull market for U.S. stocks came to a halt this year as COVID-19 worries gripped financial markets around the globe. Stock volatility surged, the S&P 500 plunged more than 30% and equities have been sold indiscriminately regardless of their region or sector. Many are left […]


April 6 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results

Note: the large increase Saturday in test results reported was due to California working through the backlog of pending tests. Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.  Some […]


Why we are warming up on credit

We see improving outlook for credit – with unprecedented policy action to limit the coronavirus shock in place and sharply lower valuations. Major developed market central banks have committed to keep interest rates low and greatly expanded their balance sheets. This underpins demand for corporate bonds and selected sovereign debt. We upgrade our view on […]


Six things for investors to watch in April

In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, we talked about the need for an effective, global, three-pronged approach in order to achieve a “best-case scenario” outcome: 1) an appropriate health policy response to “flatten the curve” and control the spread of the virus, 2) an adequate monetary policy response to support financial markets and […]

Estate Planning

Lessons Learned from Knives Out

If you like murder mysteries and went to the movies this holiday season, there’s a good chance that you saw the film, Knives Out. So far, the film has brought in 70 million dollars in ticket sales and received substantial critical acclaim. Behind the story that makes this film intriguing is a backdrop of estate […]


Germany is taking action to save it’s small and medium sized companies by granting 100% government guaranteed business loans

As I write Germany is announcing a new scheme to support small and medium-sized enterprises in that country. The scheme is of staggering scale. In essence they are saying this: The federal government is putting another comprehensive protective shield for small and medium-sized companies in view of the challenges of the corona crisis. On the basis […]


Business can restart but at its core will be new forms of funding few have thought it necessary to think about to date

The FT’s editorial this morning noted that: The OECD suggests that each additional month of shutdown will lower growth this year by two percentage points. Unless the cessation of activity is brief, this will be the biggest contraction in history. No one wanted to live through such times. Doing so is unprecedented, by definition. But […]

Real Estate

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. […]


Bank of England independence is just a charade that’s already been shot to pieces by quantitative easing: the Governor needs to get his facts right pretty quickly

As I have already noted this morning, the new Governor of the Bank of England has been throwing down the gauntlet to the government this weekend, threatening not to undertake direct monetary funding (DMF) of government spending if he does not want to do so. I wrote this blog in 2015: I argued on the […]