Preparing for the Unexpected

Cristina Briboneria, CFP®, AWMA®, ADPA® Vice President, Private CFO® As I write this, I am nearly in tears. Full disclosure, I want you to know that I was a true Lakers and Kobe Bryant fan. For me, growing up in Los Angeles and being a basketball player, I looked up to Kobe as a hero […]


‘Blue tape’ is here to stay

The Guardian is amongst many outlets to note that: Downing Street .. did nothing to knock down reports that the UK is preparing to impose full customs and border checks on all European goods entering Britain, to try to increase pressure on the bloc to give way in the negotiations, which are due to start […]


Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%

From Merrill Lynch GDP growth is likely to slow to 1.0% qoq saar in 1Q 2020. [Jan 31 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2020:Q1 [Jan 31 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth […]


Personal Income increased 0.2% in December, Spending increased 0.3%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $40.7 billion (0.2 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $30.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.6 billion (0.3 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent […]


Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. • At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading […]


Q4 GDP: Investment

Investment was weak again in Q4, although residential investment picked up (increased at a 5.8% annual rate). The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software […]


Meet the Economist: Elga Bartsch

We recently chatted with Elga Bartsch, PhD, the BlackRock Investment Institute’s Head of Macro Research, to learn more about her. This post features highlights from our discussion, including how the European sovereign debt crisis was a career defining moment and why you’ll find Elga practicing yoga, meditating and painting in her spare time. It’s the […]


HVS: Q4 2019 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2019. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. This survey might show the trend, but […]


The U.S. dollar and emerging market assets

Two broad forces drive the U.S. dollar’s moves: monetary policy differentials and risk appetite. We see the U.S. dollar stabilizing or somewhat weakening over the next six to 12 months due to shifting dynamics within each of the two forces. Most developed market (DM) central banks have gone on a pause from monetary policy actions […]