Real Estate

Home Prices Increase in Every Price Range

CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) Report revealed, “National home prices increased 3.6% year over year in July 2019 and are forecast to increase 5.4% from July 2019 to July 2020.” They also analyzed four individual home-price tiers, showing the increase in each. Here’s the breakdown: To clarify the methodology, CoreLogic explains, “The four price tiers […]


The attractions–and the limits–of fiscal policy

Fiscal policy can do more heavy lifting when monetary policy alone is no longer enough. Even without any coordination, governments have room to borrow and invest more – especially in a low interest rate environment – to effectively stir activity. We have argued that there has not been enough government spending globally on infrastructure, education, […]


Update: Predicting the Next Recession

CR September 2019 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post “Predicting the Next Recession“. I repeated the post in January 2015 (and in the summer of 2015, in January 2016, in August 2016, in April 2017, in April 2018, and in October 2018) because of all the recession calls. In late 2015, the recession callers were out […]


Hotels: Some Analyis of Short Term Rentals; Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

First, some analysis from HotelNewsNow on the impact of short term rentals on hotels: The effects of maturing short-term rentals on US hotels From STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 September The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 September 2019, […]


Building the cities of the future

Picture this: you wake up in the morning to a grueling iPhone alarm, roll out of bed, and put together breakfast. As you walk to the gym, you dodge scaffolding and turn up your music to wash out the sounds of construction. After the workout, you head to the nearest WeWork to start your job. […]


NY Fed: Manufacturing “Business activity was little changed in New York State”

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged down three points to 2.0. New orders were marginally higher than last month, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times […]


Funding the UK Green New Deal

I have been asked how I would fund the Green New Deal. This is a response I prepared to support some thinking a little while ago. I should add that I have not edited to indicate that this is solely my thinking: We face a world of massive insecurity: For people; For jobs; For the […]


A repeat of the Turmoil of 1914-1922?

This pst is by Prof Sean Danaher and was on Progressive Pulse last week. It is far too good not to share a little more widely, with Sean’s permission: History, as it is taught in British schools, remembers 1914 as a the year WWI started. WWI was of course a horrific event, but less is […]


Is value investing dead?

As far back as 1934, David Dodd and Ben Graham wrote about value investing in their seminal text, Security Analysis. The two Columbia Business School professors put forth the idea that stocks with low prices relative to their intrinsic value could outperform the market over time. Following their work, countless academics and practitioners confirmed their […]