Stock

April 7 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results

Note: the large increase Saturday in test results reported was due to California working through the backlog of pending tests. Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.  Some […]

Stock

The “Square Root Recovery”

This is an interesting way to look at the eventual recovery, from Josh Lehner at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis: COVID-19: The Square Root Recovery? The thinking is as follows. The sudden stop of the economy sends us into a severe recession overnight. Once the health situation improves some, the curve flattens and caseloads […]

Real Estate

A Big Redfin Furlough, With Some Permanent Departures

Forty-one percent of our wonderful agents are leaving Redfin this Friday, together with the wonderful coordinators, recruiters, renovators and others who support those agents. The great majority will go on furlough until September 1, with a transition bonus and health-care benefits through the summer. But we’re also asking some to leave for good, including new […]

Stock

Phase 4 Disaster Relief

Note: Most of what I proposed in early March was enacted. This includes Federal government adding to unemployment insurance (UI), expanding the coverage of UI, small business loans, free testing and care, and sending money to everyone (and much much more than I proposed).  That was a start. Now is the time to address Phase […]

Investing

Tactical Asset Allocation Views – April 2020

The Covid-19 global outbreak that started in early January represents an exogenous shock to the global growth cycle, at a time when the world economy was on the cusp of a new synchronized cyclical recovery. Driven by this shock, our macro framework moved into a global contraction regime in February (i.e. global growth expected to […]

Stock

CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.1% Year-over-year in February

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for February. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for January. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports February Home Prices Increased by 4.1% Year Over Year CoreLogic® … today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index […]

Tax

The FT says its time for the Bank of England to start direct funding of the government: modern monetary theory has won the day

The FT is continuing to face reality as it considers what to do in the face of the coronavirus crisis. It has an editorial today that concludes: The scale of today’s downturn means even the most direct monetary financing, such as “helicopter money”, or handing cash to the public, should remain an option. That’s pretty […]

Stock

Building timeless portfolios

Severe volatility tests even the most disciplined investors. The longest-ever bull market for U.S. stocks came to a halt this year as COVID-19 worries gripped financial markets around the globe. Stock volatility surged, the S&P 500 plunged more than 30% and equities have been sold indiscriminately regardless of their region or sector. Many are left […]

Stock

April 6 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results

Note: the large increase Saturday in test results reported was due to California working through the backlog of pending tests. Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.  Some […]