The Remaining options

The Observer rates the odds on blocking Brexit as follows this morning: Corbyn-led temporary government Jeremy Corbyn has offered to lead a temporary government tasked with requesting a delay to Brexit from the EU, before triggering an election. Likelihood: one in five Government of national unity Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, has said Corbyn […]


Schedule for Week of August 18, 2019

The key reports this week are July New and Existing Home Sales. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Also this week, the BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision, and the CBO will release updated budget and economic projections —– Monday, Aug 19th —–No major economic releases scheduled. […]


Markets shift sharply as uncertainty rises

Financial markets have undergone a pretty sharp shift over the past two weeks. Interest rates have rallied while risk assets like credit, equity, and emerging markets have underperformed. Volatility measures are higher, and the Treasury yield curve is now largely inverted. Invesco Fixed Income believes that several market drivers are at play, in the following […]


Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.40 million in July, up 2.5% from June’s […]


Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

From Merrill Lynch: The data boosted our 3Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to 2.1% qoq saar. 2Q was unchanged at 1.8%. [Aug 15 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.1% (qoq ar). [Aug 16 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The […]


Comments on July Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decline to 1.191 Million Annual Rate in July Total housing starts in July were below expectations, and starts for May and June were revised down.  The weakness was in the volatile multi-family sector. The housing starts report showed starts were down 4.0% in July compared to June, and starts were up 0.6% […]