Investing

The coronavirus “sudden stop” needs credit support

Yesterday, Invesco Fixed Income reported
on the historic actions taken by the US Federal
Reserve to stabilize markets.
Today, we want to take a step back and explain why those actions were deemed
necessary, given the scope of the problems faced by the markets.

The US economy is currently experiencing a
“sudden stop” in growth, as efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus
increase.  Social distancing will likely have
a direct impact on workers and small businesses across the economy.  Invesco Fixed Income’s expectations currently
are for the US and European economies to contract sharply in the second quarter
this year, and this estimate is subject to further revision down if the virus
continues its aggressive spread. This very sharp contraction is pressuring all
players in the US economy and creating a funding need for corporations, small
businesses, and households. It is vitally important that funding needs be met
to ensure that the exogenous economic shock the US economy is experiencing does
not migrate into a financial crisis, which would likely further pressure
economic growth.

The US economy is dependent on banks and
other financial market participants to help meet the economy’s funding needs in
this current sudden stop environment. It is our belief that certain regulatory
features are preventing banks from performing this role in the financial
system. In recent days, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has introduced a number of
programs to support markets, including some mortgage purchases, but this is not
making its way into the broader economy in the desired fashion. Fed balance sheet data published on Thursday
(for March 18) showed a modest jump in discount window borrowing (USD28
billion) following the Fed’s expansion of the program the previous Sunday.1
However, the overall balance sheet expanded by USD356 billion, mostly due to the
purchases of US Treasuries (USD117 billion) and repurchase agreements (USD200
billion).2 Even so, the most recent data on commercial bank lending
(March 11) show only a weekly increase of USD54.8 billion, illustrating the
point that Fed balance sheet expansion is not yet flowing through to the
economy.3

A properly functioning credit market is vitally important to households and small businesses and the US economy as it negotiates the sudden stop related to the coronavirus. Unfortunately, significant strains have developed in the US financial system. These strains are increasing the chances of a financial crisis on top of the health and economic crisis and are exacerbating the impact of the crisis on financial markets and, ultimately, on the real economy.

Regulatory
hurdles stand in the way of credit creation

Many different factors have converged to
deepen the current economic and financial crisis triggered by the spread of COVID-19.
They include the new set of banking system regulations and the development of large,
leveraged positions among financial institutions outside the regulated banking
system, all exacerbated by the sudden fall in energy prices.

Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, monetary conditions — particularly in the US — were very favorable, generally supporting moderate economic growth with low inflation, while also encouraging risk-taking during the past five years. As Fed Chairman Jay Powell said several times in January and February, the US economy was “in a good place.”

However, there have also been some key regulatory,
structural and policy changes going on in the background that have played a critical
role.

First, along with the US Dodd-Frank legislation, the Basel III financial sector regulatory accord was implemented in phases from 2013 onwards. This has required banks to a) maintain much more capital — a minimum of 4.5% of risk-weighted assets plus a capital conservation buffer of 2.5%, plus a variable counter-cyclical buffer of up to 2.5%, b) observe a leverage ratio (Tier 1 capital/total consolidated assets) in excess of 3%, and c) hold much more liquidity in the form of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) to cover total net liquidity outflows over 30 days (known as the liquidity coverage ratio or LCR).4 The banks, in short, were made much safer, but at the cost of having their balance sheets tied up meeting regulatory ratios. The result has been that when a credit crunch has arisen, they have been unable to deploy all that capital and liquidity.

In addition, banks have been compelled by the Volcker Rule under Dodd-Frank to retreat considerably from the trading and market-making activities they conducted before the global financial crisis, and therefore have not been able to act as shock absorbers in the current crisis. This is a significant reason why the US Treasury market and other fixed income markets have become much less liquid.

Second, the Trump administration tax cuts at the end of 2017 caused a surge in the fiscal deficit to USD1 trillion in 2019.5 At the same time, the Fed’s rate hikes between 2015 and 2018 caused the US Treasury yield curve to flatten. As it flattened, the dollar hedging cost for foreign buyers of US Treasury securities increased, diminishing the attractiveness of these securities to foreign investors.   

Third, in response, the US Treasury embarked on a major shift in funding strategy, raising 80% of gross funds in short-term securities with six months or less of maturity during the fiscal year 2018-2019.

Fourth, as part of its monetary policy normalization process, between October 2017 and August 2019, the Fed was allowing securities in its balance sheet to mature and did not replace them (this is sometimes called QT, or quantitative tightening). This had a major impact on bank balance sheets, reducing reserves, which were part of their HQLA, by USD600 billion6. To replace the reserves they were losing, banks purchased short-term US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to top up their levels of HQLA.

For banks, purchasing securities is similar
to making a loan. In the case of a loan, the borrower’s deposit account is
credited. In the case of security purchases, the deposit account of the seller
is credited. Both actions increase deposits and, hence, the money supply. Despite
the fact that loans did not accelerate from their 4% per annum growth rate, and
the Fed did not cut rates until July 2019, the rate of growth of money (M2) doubled
from 4% to 8% per annum during 2019, giving a huge push to the stock market.7
The banks, in other words, were financing the federal deficit by creating money.

Fifth, in the background, although the banks were being made safer during the decade from 2009-2019, hedge funds and private equity investors were taking on more risk – leveraging up. They, along with other investors, were doing carry-trades on a large scale. In essence, they were taking advantage of low interest costs in key currencies to invest in higher-return securities – often of lower quality – sometimes in foreign currencies.

Reducing regulatory burdens and broadening credit could help the Fed achieve its goals

Much of the financial regulation after the
global financial crisis was designed to ensure that we did not experience
another crisis brought on by the banking system. Arguably, this regulation has
worked well. Today, we have a banking system with capital and liquidity
safeguards that are critical to the financial system. Unfortunately, in our
view, some of these safeguards have reduced the financial system’s flexibility
to cushion credit needs and provide market intermediation when confronting an
exogenous economic shock like the one we are experiencing today.

The Fed has been responsive in utilizing
the tools at its disposal to counteract the tightening in the financial system
and provide stability to the markets. Unfortunately, the traditional tools that
the Fed has in its arsenal reach either banks via the discount window, or
primary broker dealers via open market operations. Under normal circumstances,
the Fed can achieve its goals by transacting with those two sets of counterparties.
However, recently, banks and primary broker dealers have not been able to
efficiently transmit credit intervention for the Fed, in our view. 

Given the new regulatory regime put in
place following the global financial crisis, banks and broker dealers must
manage their balance sheets more conservatively and cannot effectively perform
their role as intermediaries in markets. This is one of the reasons the Fed has
had to expand its balance sheet so much every time there is a crisis, in effect
acting as a dealer of last resort.  To
get liquidity into the hands that need it, the Fed will likely have to either
reduce dealers’ regulatory burden or transact directly or indirectly with non-traditional
counterparties. We believe reducing the regulatory burden or implementing
funding facilities for the broader credit sectors would help significantly with
opening up access to credit. Easing access to facilities such as the Primary
Dealer Credit Facility by making the facility non-recourse, or exempting
borrowing from the facility from the LCR and other regulatory requirements,
would provide significant relief to credit markets and bolster overall
financial market liquidity, in our view.

The proper functioning of markets is
essential. Unless liquidity improves in these markets, we run the real risk of
creating a financial crisis on top of a fundamental economic crisis. This would
likely amplify the negative outcomes associated with the coronavirus fight and lead
to much worse outcomes for hardworking people across the US and beyond.

Given the fast-moving pace of events
related to the pandemic and government moves to stem the economic impact, we
will be providing updates on issues discussed in this piece and new
developments as they arise.

All data
referenced are as of March 22, 2020 unless otherwise stated. All data are in US
dollars, unless otherwise stated.  

1 Source – US Federal Reserve Board, https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

2 Source – US Federal Reserve Board, https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

3 Source: Federal Reserve Board, H.8;
Page 2, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm

4 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_III

5 Source:
Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, FRED database, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS

6 Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/policy-normalization.htm

7 Source: Source: Refinitiv Datastream,
data from Jan. 1, 2019 to Dec. 31, 2019

Important Information:

Definitions:

Under a repurchase agreement, the Federal Reserve (Fed) buys US Treasury securities, US agency securities, or mortgage-backed securities from a primary dealer who agrees to buy them back within a specified period.

Tier 1 capital is the core measure of a bank’s financial strength from a
regulator’s point of view. It is composed of core capital, which consists
primarily of common stock and disclosed reserves, but may also include
non-redeemable non-cumulative preferred stock.

High-quality liquid assets consists of cash or assets that can be quickly converted into cash at little or no loss of value in private markets to meet a bank’s liquidity needs for a 30-calendar day liquidity stress scenario.

The Volcker
Rule
 prohibits banks from using
customer deposits for their own profit. They can’t own, invest in, or sponsor
hedge funds, private equity funds, or other trading operations for their use. The rule is
section 619 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act of 2010.

The Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) is an institution created by the Federal Reserve to provide overnight loans to primary dealers through their clearing banks in exchange for eligible collateral. The facility was originally established during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and  closed in 2010. A new PDCF was announced by the Fed on March 17, 2020, that will offer loans with a term of up to 90 days . The new PDCF started on March 20, 2020, will last for at least 6 months, and it will remain available longer, according to the Fed, if conditions warrant.

The opinions referenced above are
those of the authors as of March 24, 2020. These comments should
not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve
risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual
results will not differ materially from expectations.

This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment
strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a
financial advisor/financial consultant before making any investment decisions.
Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is
general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex
and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax
professional for information concerning their individual situation. The
opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market
conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ
from those of other Invesco investment professionals.

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