The coronavirus impact on fixed income markets

Macro impact The spread of the coronavirus globally has continued unabated in recent weeks. The combination of “business as usual” in Europe and the US and limited testing has exacerbated the issue and increased uncertainty regarding the extent of the outbreak and the ultimate path the outbreak will take. As policymakers take more aggressive measures […]


The Sudden Economic Stop

I just spoke with a tile sub-contractor who mostly does remodels. He was completely booked for the next several months, and all of his jobs have cancelled for the next 8 weeks. He has a great reputation – and a good network – and he has been busy for years.  These cancellations caught him by […]


From Merrill: Flirting with Recession

A few excerpts from Merrill Lynch research: The economy will flirt with recession in the coming months with negative GDP in 2Q, we believe. Growth is expected to remain soft in 3Q with recovery starting thereafter.…We now expect the Fed to cut 100bp at the March FOMC meeting, bringing rates to zero.…Based on BAC aggregated […]


Financing Climate Justice

I shamelessly republish this post from the Tax Justice Network as it refers to a publication that includes an article by me: Financing Climate Justice Tweet Share9 As the climate crisis comes into ever sharper focus the question of how we pay for a just transition takes on ever greater urgency. In this, the first […]


The government has not in any way got its head around the cash flow crisis that is about to wipe out many small businesses

The government announced five schemes in the budget to help small Company face the challenge of coronavirus. They are: Company rates exemptions; Repayment of statutory sick pay; Payment of £3,000 grants to maybe 700,000 smal Company; Extention of time to pay for taxes; New ‘risky loans’ scheme o be underwritten by government. Not one of […]


This time it’s serious

Yesterday was the fourth-worst day in US stock market history since 1928: I think we need to stop thinking this is a blip what will go away and from which we will quickly recover, as Rushi Sunak described it in the budget on Wednesday. Instead we are now living in the middle of a full-blown […]


Postpone Brexit, now

It is quite astonishing how quickly Brexit has been forgotten. Coronavirus has swept it aside. But to ignore the fact that it is ongoing, and due to be completed by 31st December this year, would be a significant error, and most especially as the scale of the coronavirus in the UK, and right across Europe, […]