Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Flow of Funds

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Years Mortgage rates continued a relentless surge higher today. The move began in earnest yesterday for two key reasons: bond market panic and mortgage market over-supply. If you take nothing else away from the following, the important part to understand is […]


Of course the bond markets aren’t phased by more borrowing: they want all the bonds the government can issue and then some more

The quality of UK financial commentary is always a cause for despair. This comment comes from the FT this afternoon: The UK government announced its biggest annual borrowing plan in eight years on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government turns to bond markets to fund its spending spree. But investors were unfazed by the […]


Lagarde is right: we’re heading for 2008, or worse

The Guardian reported today that: The president of the European Central Bank has warned that the coronavirus outbreak will spark an economic downturn in Europe similar to the 2008 financial crash unless EU governments provide financial support for their economies. Christine Lagarde held a call with EU leaders on Tuesday night to urge them to […]


Answers to FAQs about the recent market disruption

1. Wasn’t the market due for a correction anyway? Market drawdowns typically don’t just happen for no apparent reason. They are the result of economic and/or policy uncertainty. The outbreak of the coronavirus and the potential “cure” for the virus—shutting down large segments of the economy—are more than enough economic uncertainty to warrant a market […]


Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in February, Core PCE below 2%

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.7% annualized rate) in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI […]


A quick budget reaction

If you want to read my reaction to the budget you really have to read my twitter feed, but I did just also share this with another web site: Rishi Sunak has delivered his first budget, which is also the first by a Johnson government. Anyone who had hoped that this might deliver against the […]


There is a choice on coronavirus: we can save people or the economy but not both, and the government is choosing the economy

I was talked through the choices that this government is making on the epidemiology of coronavirus by someone who has some insight into the subject yesterday. Let’s call them a doctor, for the sake of convenience. They drew my attention to a tweet by Richard Horton, who is editor of The Lancet, which is the […]