High Frequency Data: Movie Box Office

There are some sectors that will be hit hard over the next several months: hotels, airlines, restaurants, movie theaters, sporting events, and convention centers.   People will probably avoid these places as part of social distancing. I already track weekly hotel occupancy data from STR, and the occupancy data is starting to show some impact […]


Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 3.1%

From Merrill Lynch: We mark to market our 1Q GDP forecast up to 1.5% from 1.0%, while taking down 2Q GDP by 0.6pp to 1.0% and 3Q GDP 0.2pp to 1.4%, reflecting wider disruption from the COVID-19 spread. [Mar 6 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Based on the downward revision to January wholesale inventories and […]


Comments on February Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 273 thousand for February was well above consensus expectations of 175 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 85 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%. Note: It appears weather boosted employment in February – I’ll have more on this later. Earlier: February Employment Report: 273,000 Jobs […]


Trade Deficit decreased to $45.3 Billion in January

Note: This data was for January and the outbreak of COVID-19 probably had little or no on impact at that time.From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $45.3 billion in January, down $3.3 billion from $48.6 […]


February Employment Report: 273,000 Jobs Added (266,000 ex-Census), 3.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.… Federal […]

Real Estate

The Difference an Hour Makes [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some Highlights: Don’t forget to set your clocks forward this Sunday, March 8 at 2:00 AM EST in observance of Daylight Saving Time, unless you’re a resident of Arizona or Hawaii! Every hour in the United States, 568 homes are sold and median home values rise by $1.92. As we “spring forward” this year, be sure […]


The government is expecting 2020 to make 2008 look like a picnic when it comes to their finances – and are already clamping down

The Guardian has reported this morning that: The national infrastructure strategy to invest £100bn in boosting the economy and tackling the climate crisis is expected to be delayed until after the budget. The plan to improve transport connectivity and work towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 had been set to be published “alongside” the budget, […]