Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.7% to 2.7%

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Feb 7 estimate]emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on February 7, down from 2.9 percent […]


Comments on January Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 225 thousand for January was above consensus expectations of 162 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 7 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate increase to 3.6%. Note: It appears weather boosted employment in January – I’ll have more on this later. Earlier: January Employment Report: 225,000 Jobs Added, […]

Real Estate

Migrants Out of Expensive West Coast Metros Flocked to Portland, Oregon in Q4

Meanwhile, affordable stalwarts Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas and Atlanta continued to dominate the list of the top migration destinations. Twenty-six percent of home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the fourth quarter of 2019, compared to 25% during the same period last year. This ties the all-time high for the national […]


There are a lot of bottoms out there

The comment I hear time and again from activists right now is that we face five (and maybe ten) years of Tory government, so what might be done to address their issues of concern? It’s a question that permeates much of what I do and so it is worth addressing. The answer is, of course, […]