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Coronavirus risks weigh on markets

The coronavirus outbreak that started in China has sent jitters across global financial markets amid fears of a hit to the global economy. We think it is too early to assess the eventual impact on the economy yet see potential downside risks posed by the outbreak – with its unknown magnitude and duration. This underpins […]

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Goldman: January Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 190k in January … initial jobless claims declined further, ADP job gains were significantly larger than expected, and an unseasonably dry survey week in the Northeast and Ohio Valley is set to boost weather-sensitive categories. We also […]

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5 wild cards for bonds in 2020

After a year of outsized returns for both equity and fixed income markets, expectations for 2020 returns have settled closer to their long-run averages: roughly 5% for stocks, and coupon-like returns of about 2% for investment-grade bonds and 5% to 6% for riskier bonds. What could upend these market expectations? We see five potential disruptors. […]

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January Employment Preview

Special Notes: The 2020 Decennial Census will start increasing hiring in early 2020. In reporting the employment report, the headline number should be reduced (or increased) by the change in Census temporary employment to show the underlying trend.  Based on previous Census hiring, I expect the Census hired 5 to 15 thousand temporary workers in […]

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Climate change needs to be on the balance sheet

The FT has an article in it this morning from Natasha Landell-Mills, who is head of stewardship at Sarasin & Partners. In it she argues that: What gets measured gets managed. The climate impact of Company and consumer decisions is not being fully measured and thus not being properly managed. I wholeheartedly agree. And I also agree that […]

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You can’t be carbon neutral by ignoring the emissions from the products you sell

As a result of the work I have been doing on  sustainable cost accounting I have become pretty familiar with this thing:The greenhouse gas protocol splits greenhouse gas emissions into three categories. Thankfully, they’re pretty easy to define: I’ve reproduced the Protocol’s own description just to make clear that they really do think there’s not […]