The Record Job Streak: A few Comments

A few comments on the current headline jobs streak.  Also, the job streak if we adjust by temporary decennial Census hiring, and the possible impact of the annual revision (to be released with the January employment report).

The employment report has shown positive job growth for a record 111 months.

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
Year Ending Streak, Months
20191 111
1990 48
2007 46
1979 45
1943 33
1986 33
2000 33
1967 29
1995 25
1974 24
1Streak still going!

However, if we adjust for Decennial Census hiring and firing (data here) the streak of consecutive positive jobs reports is actually 118 months long. It makes sense to adjust for the Census hiring and firing since that was preplanned and unrelated to the business cycle.

If the job streak continues into 2020, then the headline streak will probably end in June 2020 when a large number of temporary Census workers are let go.  But if we adjust for temporary Census hiring, then the streak might continue.   Of course the streak could end at any time.

The Census will hire approximately 500 temporary workers over the next 5 months (mostly in May).   This is why I wrote last year: How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring

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