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Goldman: December Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 185k in December … We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 3.5% … we estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month, lowering the year-over-year rate to 3.0%emphasis added

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Update: The Inland Empire Bust and Recovery

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote: As the housing bubble unwinds, housing related employment will fall; and fall dramatically in areas like the Inland Empire. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local […]

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Why we like health care stocks in 2020

In a year-end poll of our Fundamental Active Equity investors, two themes stood out: The U.S. election is seen as a key market driver, and health care is among our favored sectors. The two juxtaposed may surprise some readers. Health care reform and drug pricing are hot-button political topics. You might assume it’s the year […]

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December Employment Preview

Special Note: The 2020 Decennial Census will start increasing hiring in early 2020. In reporting the employment report, the headline number should be reduced (or increased) by the change in Census temporary employment to show the underlying trend. On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus […]