Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019

CR Note: These lower population estimates are important for projections of economic growth and housing. I mentioned this slowdown in growth earlier this month in Is the Future still Bright? From housing economist Tom Lawler: US Population Growth Slowed Again in 2019 Yesterday the Census Bureau released its “Vintage 2019” estimates of the US resident […]


Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.3% year-over-year in October

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October (“October” is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data […]

Real Estate

Expert Insights on the 2020 Housing Market

When closing out another year, it’s normal to wonder what’s ahead for the housing market. Though there will be future inventory issues, we expect interest rates to stay low and appreciation to continue. Here’s what three experts are saying we’ll likely see in 2020: Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at “I think the biggest surprise […]


Happy new decade. May we survive it.

I would like to be subtle about this, but that would be wrong. The 2010s were a dire decade. It wasn’t just Tory rule that made them so. But they massively assisted the process. Austerity was wholly unnecessary. Brexit resulted. That was the consequence of too many people suffering. Under Miliband Labour wimped along in […]


Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

Tuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October 2019. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. • Also at 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 3.2% year-over-year increase in the National index for October.


Question #4 for 2020: Will the overall participation rate start declining in 2020, or will it move more sideways (or slightly up) in 2020?

Earlier I posted some questions for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2020. I’m adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 4) Participation Rate: In November 2020, the overall participation rate was at 63.2%, up slightly year-over-year from 62.9% in November 2019.   The BLS is projecting the overall participation rate will […]


Chicago PMI “Rose to 48.9 in December”

Earlier from the Chicago PMI: Chicago Business Barometer™ – Rose to 48.9 in December The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 2.6 points in December, hitting a four-month high of 48.9. Business sentiment dropped by 1.2 points to 46.2 in Q4, marking the lowest quarterly reading since Q2 2009. The index was below the […]


Dallas Fed: “Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly”

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to 3.6 after dipping into negative territory last month. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also […]


NAR: “Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November”

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Expand 1.2% in November Pending home sales increased in November, rebounding from the prior month’s decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The West region reported the highest growth last month, while the other three major U.S. regions saw only marginal variances in month-over-month contract activity. Pending home […]


Labour needs to drop the Green Industrial Revolution: we need a Green New Deal, and they’re nothing like the same thing

It’s deeply frustrating to see Rebecca Long-Bailey still talking about a ‘Green Industrial Revolution’ in the Guardian this morning, in an article that is widely presumed to represent the launch of her Labour leadership bid. Let me be precise as to my criticism. First, no one else but Labour is talking about a Green Industrial […]


It’s time for GERS to go

If I presume my Twitter timeline to be a reflection of what is happening in some areas of debate, then dispute on the usefulness of the Scottish government’s GERS statement is raging again. GERS stands for Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland. It is also the nickname of Rangers Football Club which is, of course, traditionally […]


Monday: Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 29, 2019 Monday:• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. • At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase in the index. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last […]


December 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 67 Institutions, Q4 2019 Transition Matrix

Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same […]


Congress Just Passed the Biggest Bill in a Decade – The SECURE Act: 7 Things You Need to Know

On December 19th, the Senate passed the most sweeping retirement bill since the Pension Protection Act of 2006. The SECURE Act, whose progress had stalled until lawmakers tacked it onto a spending bill to keep the country running, aims to make saving easier amongst a bevy of changing rules. The House already passed the legislation, […]


Schedule for Week of December 29, 2019

Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2020. The key indicators include this week are Case-Shiller House Prices for October and the December ISM manufacturing index. —– Monday, Dec 30th —–9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.1% increase […]