Investing

Peak Globalization? Not!

With the trade conflict still at the forefront of the geopolitical scene, it has become quite fashionable to say we have reached peak globalization. By that, the prognosticators mean the flow of goods and services will now likely come down. From a political standpoint once again, given the rhetoric across the world – whether it […]

Investing

Is the bad news priced in?

Financial markets have been driven largely by five factors over the recent year. Considering these drivers of recent market behavior, I see a significant possibility that the market is overly pessimistic about the outlook. The five market drivers are: Slowing US economic growth. Growth has been steadily slowing since the middle of 2018 as the […]

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Q3 GDP: Investment

Investment was weak again in Q3, although residential investment picked up (increased at a 5.1% annual rate). The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software […]

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ADP: Private Employment increased 125,000 in October

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 125,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®. … The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in tota … The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private […]

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Is the EM debt rally for real?

One beneficiary of a perceived easing in the U.S.-China trade conflict: EM debt, which has rallied recently and outperformed developed market peers. We see factors further supporting EM debt from here: a likely Federal Reserve rate cut this week and the potential for a stable U.S. dollar; an EM growth rebound; and a temporary U.S.-China […]

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Wednesday: GDP, FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 139,000 jobs added, up from 135,000 in September. • At 8:30 AM, […]