AAR: September Rail Carloads down 7.0% YoY, Intermodal Down 4.6% YoY

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. There’s still no relief in sight for U.S. rail traffic. Total originated U.S. rail carloads fell 7.0% in September 2019 from September 2018, their eighth straight year-over-year decline. In the third quarter, total carloads were down 5.4%; for the […]


Q3 GDP Forecasts: Just Under 2%

From Merrill Lynch: These data edged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 1.7% qoq saar. [Oct 3 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We also lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.9% (qoq ar). [Oct 3 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands […]


Three ways investing is like baseball

As I write this blog, it’s October, and the Major League Baseball playoffs are in full swing. Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball is famous for statistical analysis, and there are seemingly endless ways to evaluate every player. Similarly, there are many ways to evaluate stocks, and different portfolio managers assemble their “teams” using […]


Trade Deficit increased to $54.9 Billion in August

From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.9 billion in August, up $0.9 billion from $54.0 billion in July, revised. August exports were $207.9 billion, $0.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $262.8 billion, […]


Comments on September Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 135 thousand for September ex-Census (136K total including temp Census hires) was below consensus expectations of 145 thousand, however the previous two months were revised up 45 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate declined to 3.5%; the lowest rate since 1969. Earlier: September Employment Report: 136,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate […]


September Employment Report: 136,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up.… Employment in government continued on an upward trend in September (+22,000). Federal hiring […]


HS2: dead on arrival

As the FT notes today: The Green party is calling for the billions of pounds earmarked for HS2 to be diverted into a nationwide upgrade of local transport as part of its longstanding opposition to the contentious high-speed rail project. Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley said the £88bn scheme, which has been beset by delays and […]


Takeaways from our Q4 outlook

The fourth quarter of 2019 kicked off with a market selloff and more evidence that a protectionist push is hitting the U.S. industrial sector. How are our asset views faring this year to date–and what are the key themes we see shaping markets in the months ahead? We address those questions in the Q4 update […]


Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

My September Employment Preview. Goldman’s September Payrolls preview. Friday:• At 8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 145,000 jobs added, up from 130,000 in August (including temporary Census hires). The consensus is the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 3.7%. • At 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census […]