Goldman: September Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in September, compared to consensus of +146k. While employment surveys weakened further on net, their levels are still consistent with above-potential job growth. … We estimate a one tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. […]


September Employment Preview

Special Note on Decennial Census: Temporary Decennial Census hiring will probably impact the September employment report with the Census hiring around 15,000 temporary workers. The headline number should be adjusted for these hires, see: How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release […]


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 52.6% in September

The September ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 52.6%, down from 56.4% in August. The employment index decreased to 50.4%, from 53.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: September 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 116th consecutive […]


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 219,000

The DOL reported: In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 213,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,500, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average. […]


Will Ireland blink?

There is a logic to what Boris Johnson is doing with regards to Brexit. It’s easy to spot. It is that by saying he will not blink Ireland, the EU, or both, will. That is his whole strategy. It is based on three premises.  The first is that he is tougher than them. The second […]


Barefoot Goes to Brazil

She leaned in and whispered, “If you want the good stuff … you really need to go to … Brazil.” I was speaking to the ‘Queen’ of global financial education: Elaine Kempson, from Bristol University. She was telling me about a groundbreaking school money program in Brazil that she urged me to see for myself. […]