Investing

Third Fed rate cut could be the last in 2019

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the federal funds rate band by 25 basis points from 1.75%–2.00% to 1.50%­–1.75%.1 Changes in the text of the Federal Open Market Committee statement, as well as information provided in the press conference, indicate that the Fed believes it is done cutting interest rates unless economic conditions continue […]

Stock

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased slightly in September

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased slightly to 0.68% in September, from 0.68% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.82% in September 2018. These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 […]

Stock

October Employment Preview: Take the Under

Special Notes on GM Strike and Decennial Census: The GM strike has ended, but 48,000 workers were on strike during the BLS reference week. There was probably some spillover to suppliers and others – and the strike will probably reduce October employment by close to 75,000 jobs. The strike is over, and these jobs will […]

Stock

Personal Income increased 0.3% in September, Spending increased 0.2%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $55.7 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.3 billion (0.2 percent). Real DPI increased 0.3 percent […]

Tax

Bad business and corporate responsibility

I have a presentation for the Corporate Accountability Network at Essex Univesity yesterday. I did not use slides, although I had prepared some. These were my notes, in that case: Bad Company and corporate responsibility Professor Richard Murphy Professor of Practice in International Political Economy, City University, London Director, Corporate Accountability Network University of Essex, […]

Investing

Peak Globalization? Not!

With the trade conflict still at the forefront of the geopolitical scene, it has become quite fashionable to say we have reached peak globalization. By that, the prognosticators mean the flow of goods and services will now likely come down. From a political standpoint once again, given the rhetoric across the world – whether it […]

Investing

Is the bad news priced in?

Financial markets have been driven largely by five factors over the recent year. Considering these drivers of recent market behavior, I see a significant possibility that the market is overly pessimistic about the outlook. The five market drivers are: Slowing US economic growth. Growth has been steadily slowing since the middle of 2018 as the […]

Stock

Q3 GDP: Investment

Investment was weak again in Q3, although residential investment picked up (increased at a 5.1% annual rate). The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software […]