Stock

Update: Predicting the Next Recession

CR September 2019 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post “Predicting the Next Recession“. I repeated the post in January 2015 (and in the summer of 2015, in January 2016, in August 2016, in April 2017, in April 2018, and in October 2018) because of all the recession calls. In late 2015, the recession callers were out […]

Stock

Hotels: Some Analyis of Short Term Rentals; Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

First, some analysis from HotelNewsNow on the impact of short term rentals on hotels: The effects of maturing short-term rentals on US hotels From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 September The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 September 2019, […]

Stock

Building the cities of the future

Picture this: you wake up in the morning to a grueling iPhone alarm, roll out of bed, and put together breakfast. As you walk to the gym, you dodge scaffolding and turn up your music to wash out the sounds of construction. After the workout, you head to the nearest WeWork to start your job. […]

Stock

NY Fed: Manufacturing “Business activity was little changed in New York State”

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged down three points to 2.0. New orders were marginally higher than last month, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times […]

Tax

Funding the UK Green New Deal

I have been asked how I would fund the Green New Deal. This is a response I prepared to support some thinking a little while ago. I should add that I have not edited to indicate that this is solely my thinking: We face a world of massive insecurity: For people; For jobs; For the […]

Tax

A repeat of the Turmoil of 1914-1922?

This pst is by Prof Sean Danaher and was on Progressive Pulse last week. It is far too good not to share a little more widely, with Sean’s permission: History, as it is taught in British schools, remembers 1914 as a the year WWI started. WWI was of course a horrific event, but less is […]

Stock

Is value investing dead?

As far back as 1934, David Dodd and Ben Graham wrote about value investing in their seminal text, Security Analysis. The two Columbia Business School professors put forth the idea that stocks with low prices relative to their intrinsic value could outperform the market over time. Following their work, countless academics and practitioners confirmed their […]