Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand initial claims, down from 217 thousand the previous week. • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in […]


Market Update. Investors eye rate cuts, but markets remain lukewarm as US-China trade dispute continues

Global equity markets have rallied off their mid-August lows that were driven by US-China trade tensions.  Sentiment looks to be improving as investors speculate that the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in September to address the prospect of slowing global trade. That’s significant: the two economic regions combined […]


Why growth remains valuable

People will always prize what is scarce. Given an increasingly erratic trade dispute, low to negative interest rates and softening economic growth, investors are justifiably putting a premium on hedges, yield and earnings growth. The latter dynamic helps explains why, despite a relatively high premium, growth stocks continue to beat value. To the extent economic […]


Employment: August Diffusion Indexes

I haven’t posted this in a few months. The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 53.5 in August, down from 57.8 in July. For manufacturing, the diffusion index was at 51.3, down from 53.9 in August. Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further […]


MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 6, 2019. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. … The Refinance Index […]

Real Estate

Millennial Buying Power Poised to Boost Homeownership

In a recent article by Realtor Magazine, Mark Fleming, Chief Economist of First American Financial Corporation, notes, “The largest group of millennials by birth year will turn 30 in 2020, which puts them entering their prime homebuying years”. The article continues to describe how millennials have more buying-power than the generations that preceded them, making […]