Stock

Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales up 1.4% YoY, Inventory up 37% YoY

This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported More signs that Southern Nevada’s real estate roller-coaster ride has slowed down; GLVAR housing statistics for August 2019 The […]

Stock

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-high 1%

From Merrill Lynch: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.9% (qoq ar). [Sept 5 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: [W]e lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to 1.9% (qoq ar). . [Sept 4 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% […]

Stock

Comments on August Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 105 thousand for August ex-Census (130K total including temp Census hires) was well below consensus expectations of 158 thousand, and the previous two months were revised down 20 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. There was good news with the increase in the participation rate and employment-population […]

Stock

August Employment Report: 105,000 Jobs Added Ex-Census, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in federal government rose, largely reflecting the hiring of temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Notable job gains also occurred in health care and financial […]

Tax

The UK’s failing economic model demands bold ideas

I was a signatory to this letter in the FT this morning: The UK’s failing economic model demands such bold ideas From David Blanchflower and others Your series of articles exploring the Labour party’s economic agenda fails to appreciate the severity of the UK’s current economic condition, and reproduces a number of misconceptions. There is growing political […]

Tax

This is not the time to give up

I was told by an academic I respect that they’d had enough of Brexit yesterday. It was too difficult to watch the country being torn apart by incompetent people to continue monitoring the detail, they suggested. There were better things to do with life. I understand the sentiment. I also understand on that basis why […]

Stock

Caught between uncertainty and easy money

Stock prices have spent August caught in a tug-of-war. On one side: increasingly accommodative central banks and easier financial conditions. On the other side of the rope: rising economic uncertainty driven by a quickly deteriorating trade situation. As I write this in late August, uncertainty is winning this month. That said, this is not 2018. […]