Goldman: August Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in August … Our forecast reflects a 15-20k boost from Census canvassing activities, but a slower underlying pace of private-sector job gains in part reflecting the return of the trade war. … We estimate the unemployment […]


August Employment Preview

Special Note on Decennial Census: Temporary Decennial Census hiring will probably impact the August employment report with the Census hiring as many as 40,000 temporary workers. The headline number should be adjusted for these hires, see: How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS […]


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.4% in August

The August ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.4%, up from 53.7% in July. The employment index decreased to 53.1%, from 56.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: August 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 115th consecutive […]


ADP: Private Employment increased 195,000 in August

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 195,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. … The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.…“In August we saw a rebound in private-sector employment,” said […]

Real Estate

Everybody Calm Down! This Is NOT 2008

Last week released the results of a survey that produced three major revelations: 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur this year or next. 57% believe the next recession will be as bad or worse than 2008. 55% said they would cancel plans to […]


Amazon: setting the record straight

The right-wing, anti-Company having to pay their fair share of tax brigade were out in force on the blog yesterday. They were incensed by my comments in a Guardian article in the amount of tax Amazon paid last year, which I quoted yesterday. I have to admit I have little time for these dinosaurs. I […]


The monetary policy endgame

The major global central banks continue to draw bigger guns in their battle against deflation, yet in some places, it appears to be of no avail. The fact is that the share of sovereign yields that are in negative territory keeps increasing and the average level of these interest rates becomes ever more negative. Further, […]


Green QE, from this blog to the IMF

The IMF posted a blog on its website yesterday under the title: A Role for Financial and Monetary Policies in Climate Change Mitigation It summarised the options like this: Much of what I have been writing about funding the Green New Deal recently, here and here, fits into this framework. So, I argue for green […]


Tax and the Spending Review

I wrote this for one of the organisations I am associated with yesterday with regard to the Spending Review and thought it worth sharing here: One would think a spending review has very little to do with tax. The logic is that spending is the opposite side of the revenue cycle from tax. But that’s […]


Is Cummings as clever as he thinks?

I was having a discussion with someone yesterday, who shall remain nameless, who I would consider a shrewd political thinker.We were discussing the events of the last twenty-four hours or so and considering whether or not Johnson and Cummings (BoriDom as I now think of them) had played a shrewd hand. The answer was no. […]